Autumn fall

13/10/2017
Autumn fall

The housing market has generated plenty of headlines this autumn. The latest statistics from Rightmove show that asking prices fell by 1.2% in September.

It’s the first time prices have seen a reduction at this time of year since 2013. London saw the biggest falls, with central areas down by 5.3% and Greater London down by 2.9%.

Miles Shipside, Rightmove director and housing market analyst comments:

“As we enter the autumn selling season it is usual to see estate agents advising new to the market sellers to push up their asking prices. But this year all four southern regions have seen new sellers on average asking less than those of a month ago, reducing the national rate of increase.

There were Autumn price bounces nationally in 2014, 2015 and 2016, but the south of the country has turned this month into a bit of a damp squib, whilst some northern regions are still showing marginal signs of upwards price pressure.

Estate agents are clearly advising many sellers that they have to lower their price expectations to fit in with buyers’ stretched financial resources, with that price compromise hopefully generating extra buyer interest.”

However, as Rightmove themselves point out, house prices will eventually reach an upper limit and after six years of continuous growth, it’s not unreasonable for them to slow for a while. And it’s good news for buyers, especially since, on an annual basis, wage growth (+2.1%) has finally overtaken house price growth (+1.1%).

There is no doubt, affordability is a key component of a healthy housing market and it is interesting to note that despite falling asking prices, transaction volumes were up by 4.8% when compared to the same period last year.

Autumn could also see the first rise in the base rate since 2008. It’s been widely tipped to take place in November, but its effect on the housing market is expected to be minimal as the rise is only likely to be a reversal of the 0.25% reduction in the immediate aftermath of the EU referendum.

According to Nationwide, one of the country’s biggest lenders, the number of borrowers on variable rates has fallen substantially in recent years, down from a high of 70% in 2001 to 40% today. Even for those who do have variable rate loans, a quarter per cent rise equates to just £15 extra a month for the average sized loan.

Autumn is also peak conference season and both the left and the right have come up with an array of solutions for Britain’s ‘Broken Housing Market,’ some more practical than others.

Labour has pledged to introduce rent controls and prevent ‘social cleansing’ during regeneration programmes. The Conservatives have promised another £10bn for the Help to Buy scheme, a top to bottom review of social housing and an extra £2bn to build 25,000 new council houses. For the rental market there are plans for tighter regulation – see ‘RENTAL MARKET’ section below.

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